VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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PoorlyweatherSP-5730

Weather grade: Washington DC

Composite weather grade Washington DC.

Sectors:Regional MetrosWeather & Climate
the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 54% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.50%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6557. Bullish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-18
73.8
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 19%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 10%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 0.9%
last 90 observations · 2026-02-18 → 2026-05-18

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Weather grade: Washington DC
73.81▼ -24.30 (-24.77%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
103.776.7949.8622.94-3.99Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26
2025-09-09 → 2026-05-18 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

51%
+0.02%
1 d
51%
+0.06%
1 wk
↑54%
+0.24%
1 mo
↑54%
+0.50%
3 mo
↑54%
+0.50%
6 mo
↑54%
+0.70%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,557
+0.02%
51% same direction
+0.06%
51% same direction
+0.24%
54% same direction
+0.50%
54% same direction
+0.50%
54% same direction
+0.70%
54% same direction
Gold
futures
n=6,329
+0.00%
50% same direction
-0.00%
49% same direction
+0.04%
50% same direction
+0.53%
52% same direction
+1.9%
56% same direction
+2.8%
55% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
210 fires · 29% positive · avg −1.86%
−31.4%−15.7%0%+15.7%+31.4%2000-09-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: +9.08%2000-09-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: +9.23%2000-09-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: +7.07%2000-12-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.28) · SPY 63d: +12.69%2000-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: +14.53%2001-01-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: +7.10%2001-02-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: +7.03%2001-03-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −5.78%2001-07-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: +11.79%2001-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: +3.88%2001-08-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −3.60%2001-09-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −14.15%2001-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −1.52%2002-02-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 63d: +0.25%2002-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: +11.04%2002-03-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: +14.62%2002-03-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: +14.71%2002-05-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: +15.99%2002-06-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: +14.19%2002-06-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 63d: +11.92%2002-06-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: +11.57%2002-07-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −12.78%2002-08-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: +0.43%2002-08-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −2.32%2002-09-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: −4.27%2002-10-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −10.54%2002-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 63d: −6.32%2002-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: +4.67%2002-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: +7.43%2002-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: +11.06%2002-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: +7.32%2002-12-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: +2.30%2002-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +2.46%2003-09-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −3.63%2003-09-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −5.35%2003-09-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −3.73%2003-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −6.53%2003-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −9.40%2003-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −7.89%2003-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −8.28%2003-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −9.43%2003-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −7.16%2004-07-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −0.08%2004-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −9.34%2004-09-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −8.90%2004-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: −3.16%2004-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 63d: −1.59%2004-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −1.67%2004-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −0.99%2004-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −1.52%2004-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: +2.86%2005-01-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: +3.16%2005-10-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.86) · SPY 63d: −7.66%2005-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −7.13%2005-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.55) · SPY 63d: −6.38%2005-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: −2.46%2005-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −2.59%2005-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 63d: −1.31%2005-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: −3.05%2005-12-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 63d: −2.33%2006-01-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −2.45%2006-01-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −3.55%2006-06-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −5.65%2006-06-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −5.99%2006-06-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −7.80%2006-09-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: −6.70%2006-09-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −7.31%2006-09-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 63d: −7.29%2006-10-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 63d: −4.49%2006-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −4.70%2006-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −3.27%2006-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −3.99%2006-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: +1.01%2007-01-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −2.42%2007-07-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −1.05%2007-08-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 63d: +0.81%2007-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.01) · SPY 63d: +11.53%2007-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.91) · SPY 63d: +6.88%2007-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.60) · SPY 63d: +12.83%2008-01-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: −3.79%2008-02-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: −1.38%2008-02-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −3.23%2008-02-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −2.87%2008-09-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: +31.44%2008-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: +13.11%2008-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: +13.74%2008-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: +12.15%2008-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +14.08%2009-01-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: +8.98%2009-07-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −8.98%2009-09-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −5.60%2009-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −3.58%2009-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −2.85%2009-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +1.92%2009-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −0.65%2009-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: +0.01%2009-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −4.95%2010-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −12.40%2010-08-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: −12.31%2010-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −7.62%2010-09-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.48) · SPY 63d: −9.96%2010-09-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 63d: −10.15%2010-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 63d: −9.72%2010-10-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −9.29%2010-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 63d: −7.27%2010-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: −13.28%2010-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 63d: −10.30%2010-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −2.35%2011-09-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −7.89%2011-09-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −4.96%2011-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −8.93%2011-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −9.94%2011-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −17.67%2011-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −8.55%2011-12-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −11.05%2012-02-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: +3.84%2012-07-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.32) · SPY 63d: −6.15%2012-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.68) · SPY 63d: +1.82%2012-09-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 63d: +1.59%2012-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −10.52%2012-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −9.38%2012-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −9.72%2012-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −10.53%2013-01-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −5.47%2013-01-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −4.82%2013-01-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −6.71%2013-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −8.85%2013-10-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −6.71%2013-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −3.10%2013-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −2.13%2013-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: −3.48%2013-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −3.24%2013-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −2.45%2013-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −1.34%2014-01-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −3.12%2014-09-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: −5.82%2014-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 63d: −6.75%2014-10-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −6.37%2014-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −0.73%2014-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 63d: −2.74%2014-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.33) · SPY 63d: −2.10%2014-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: −0.30%2014-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: +0.98%2015-01-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −3.38%2015-10-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.12) · SPY 63d: −3.09%2015-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: +7.29%2015-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: +7.78%2015-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: +5.17%2015-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 63d: +1.35%2016-01-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −11.41%2016-01-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: −9.68%2016-09-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −5.45%2016-09-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −3.58%2016-09-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −4.50%2016-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: −6.84%2017-01-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 63d: −4.55%2017-02-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −3.81%2017-03-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −3.23%2017-03-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −2.57%2017-04-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −2.83%2017-05-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −3.22%2017-05-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −1.83%2017-06-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −2.07%2017-07-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −5.24%2017-07-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −3.53%2017-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −4.27%2017-08-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −4.79%2017-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −6.55%2017-08-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −7.36%2017-10-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −8.11%2017-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −10.42%2017-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: +0.40%2018-01-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +4.38%2019-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −10.90%2019-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −6.85%2019-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: +24.88%2020-01-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: +17.85%2020-02-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: +13.86%2020-04-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −11.53%2020-06-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −11.07%2020-07-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −5.30%2020-07-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −7.40%2020-07-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −0.83%2020-07-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −1.06%2020-08-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −0.04%2020-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −2.76%2020-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −4.68%2020-08-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −5.89%2020-08-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −4.86%2022-01-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: +4.38%2022-01-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: +3.97%2023-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −9.02%2023-04-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −10.06%2023-06-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: +0.64%2023-06-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: +2.36%2023-07-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: +3.71%2023-07-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: +7.68%2023-09-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 63d: −2.85%2023-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: −12.04%2023-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −11.68%2023-12-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −10.28%2023-12-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −9.77%2024-01-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −8.49%2024-07-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −5.40%2024-07-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −7.16%2024-09-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −7.64%2024-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −0.63%2024-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: +6.64%2025-01-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: +16.61%2025-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: +0.03%2000-09-192010-11-162025-12-02
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
Regime-tuned params · AutoResearch v13Analyst · preview
Regime matters
This indicator's strongest predictive edge sits in Low VIX (calm): tuned σ = 2.5, window = 180d, horizon = 126d, hit-rate deviation from chance = 50.0pp.
RegimeσWindowHorizonHit dev
● Low VIX (calm)2.50180d126d50.0pp
● Normal VIX2.7590d252d50.0pp
● High VIX (stress)2.00180d252d48.0pp

Hit-rate deviation = |hit% − 50%| at the row's tuned horizon. Big deviation = strong directional edge in that regime. Regimes split by daily VIX terciles (low / normal / high) over a 1-year rolling window. Analyst + Trader subscribers will be able to filter the home grid and the fire-history bar chart by regime.

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.