VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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PoorlyweatherSP-6182

Weather grade: Denver

Composite weather grade Denver.

Sectors:Regional MetrosWeather & Climate
the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 54% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.49%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6568. Bullish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-18
7.03
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 89%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 93%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 93%
last 90 observations · 2026-02-18 → 2026-05-18

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Weather grade: Denver
7.03▼ -81.09 (-92.02%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
104.077.0050.0023.00-4.00Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26
2025-09-09 → 2026-05-18 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

51%
+0.02%
1 d
51%
+0.06%
1 wk
↑53%
+0.25%
1 mo
↑54%
+0.49%
3 mo
↑54%
+0.81%
6 mo
↑54%
+0.98%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,568
+0.02%
51% same direction
+0.06%
51% same direction
+0.25%
53% same direction
+0.49%
54% same direction
+0.81%
54% same direction
+0.98%
54% same direction
DXY
dollar index
n=6,418
-0.01%
49% same direction
+0.02%
51% same direction
-0.01%
50% same direction
-0.07%
49% same direction
+0.03%
49% same direction
-0.27%
44% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
237 fires · 35% positive · avg −1.55%
−30.3%−15.1%0%+15.1%+30.3%2000-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +2.55%2000-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.09) · SPY 63d: +4.84%2000-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: +7.40%2000-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: +2.58%2000-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: +8.06%2000-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: +7.70%2000-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: +15.13%2001-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −4.49%2001-10-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −8.91%2001-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.49) · SPY 63d: +1.03%2001-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 63d: +3.85%2001-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.05) · SPY 63d: +3.69%2001-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: +3.71%2001-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −0.35%2002-01-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: +4.01%2002-10-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.53) · SPY 63d: −9.53%2002-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +4.23%2002-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.13) · SPY 63d: +4.67%2002-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.75) · SPY 63d: +3.77%2002-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.39) · SPY 63d: +2.59%2002-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.29) · SPY 63d: +5.42%2002-11-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: +9.78%2003-02-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: −7.89%2003-02-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −10.06%2003-02-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −9.47%2003-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: −6.47%2003-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.56) · SPY 63d: −8.13%2003-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.98) · SPY 63d: −4.66%2003-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.78) · SPY 63d: −4.10%2003-12-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.42) · SPY 63d: −5.06%2004-01-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −3.07%2004-01-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −2.52%2004-08-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −6.19%2004-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −5.76%2004-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 63d: −6.35%2004-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: −4.76%2004-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 63d: −2.37%2004-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −2.90%2004-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +2.93%2005-08-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: +1.59%2005-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.69) · SPY 63d: −8.69%2005-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −5.17%2005-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 63d: −3.65%2005-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.86) · SPY 63d: −3.09%2005-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −1.31%2005-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 63d: −0.44%2005-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.28) · SPY 63d: −1.99%2005-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 63d: −2.25%2006-01-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −2.20%2006-09-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −8.35%2006-10-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.85) · SPY 63d: −4.78%2006-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.42) · SPY 63d: −4.70%2006-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 63d: −4.24%2006-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.98) · SPY 63d: −2.89%2006-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −5.21%2006-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: +2.22%2006-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: +0.59%2006-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −0.75%2006-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −0.88%2006-12-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: +0.03%2007-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.52) · SPY 63d: +3.07%2007-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 63d: +4.00%2007-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.92) · SPY 63d: +9.05%2007-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.09) · SPY 63d: +12.13%2007-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.69) · SPY 63d: +10.99%2007-12-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.42) · SPY 63d: +9.20%2007-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: +10.08%2007-12-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: +10.63%2008-08-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +29.96%2008-09-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: +30.26%2008-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.04) · SPY 63d: +8.76%2008-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.75) · SPY 63d: +20.15%2008-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: +20.18%2008-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 63d: +15.64%2008-12-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: +8.91%2008-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: +14.08%2008-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: +3.54%2009-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −5.23%2009-10-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.54) · SPY 63d: −9.24%2009-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.81) · SPY 63d: −0.91%2009-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.59) · SPY 63d: −2.85%2009-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: −2.26%2009-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.12) · SPY 63d: −0.58%2009-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −2.70%2009-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −5.33%2010-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.58) · SPY 63d: −8.77%2010-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −9.43%2010-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −13.56%2010-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −9.01%2010-11-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.64) · SPY 63d: −10.09%2010-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.35) · SPY 63d: −9.88%2010-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.38) · SPY 63d: −2.35%2010-12-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −5.46%2010-12-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −5.88%2011-01-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −4.32%2011-01-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −3.17%2011-09-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −4.96%2011-09-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −3.08%2011-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.93) · SPY 63d: −6.05%2011-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.66) · SPY 63d: −8.51%2011-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.74) · SPY 63d: −9.43%2011-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −7.50%2011-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −8.54%2011-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: −16.56%2011-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −13.04%2012-09-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.61) · SPY 63d: +1.22%2012-09-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.55) · SPY 63d: +2.27%2012-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.50) · SPY 63d: −6.84%2012-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.50) · SPY 63d: −6.11%2012-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.29) · SPY 63d: −5.91%2012-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.28) · SPY 63d: −7.84%2012-12-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −10.24%2013-01-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −5.47%2013-09-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: −6.70%2013-09-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −5.78%2013-10-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −7.98%2013-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.47) · SPY 63d: −5.61%2013-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: +0.94%2013-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.76) · SPY 63d: −2.74%2013-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 63d: −4.75%2013-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 63d: −5.15%2013-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −3.48%2013-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −3.24%2014-10-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.63) · SPY 63d: −5.97%2014-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −2.03%2014-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.89) · SPY 63d: −1.45%2014-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −2.32%2014-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.98) · SPY 63d: −2.85%2014-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 63d: −2.90%2014-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −2.74%2014-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: +0.82%2014-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: +0.09%2014-12-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: +1.10%2014-12-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +0.92%2015-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: +5.61%2015-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.92) · SPY 63d: +11.77%2015-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.01) · SPY 63d: +10.16%2015-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.84) · SPY 63d: +6.56%2015-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.49) · SPY 63d: +7.70%2015-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 63d: +5.46%2015-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: +4.64%2015-12-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: +0.19%2015-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +1.35%2016-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-6.79) · SPY 63d: −7.99%2016-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −8.14%2016-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.00) · SPY 63d: −7.33%2016-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −8.19%2016-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −8.26%2016-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.39) · SPY 63d: −7.88%2016-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.21) · SPY 63d: −6.84%2016-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.01) · SPY 63d: −5.83%2016-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.49) · SPY 63d: −5.62%2016-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −3.88%2017-01-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 63d: −3.62%2017-01-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.14) · SPY 63d: −3.99%2017-01-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −3.52%2017-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 63d: −4.27%2017-10-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.91) · SPY 63d: −6.52%2017-10-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.72) · SPY 63d: −8.11%2017-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: +0.40%2017-12-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −1.82%2017-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.72) · SPY 63d: +0.92%2017-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +2.76%2018-02-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −0.73%2018-03-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −4.22%2018-05-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −7.53%2018-10-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.28) · SPY 63d: +10.37%2018-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: +6.94%2018-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.09) · SPY 63d: −0.85%2018-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −0.49%2018-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.22) · SPY 63d: −0.66%2018-12-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −14.42%2019-01-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: −12.04%2019-01-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −8.94%2019-01-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −11.42%2019-01-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −10.81%2019-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.08) · SPY 63d: −11.07%2019-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −9.63%2019-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.79) · SPY 63d: −7.70%2019-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.69) · SPY 63d: −7.69%2019-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.55) · SPY 63d: −8.07%2019-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.42) · SPY 63d: −5.78%2019-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −0.77%2019-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.34) · SPY 63d: −0.17%2019-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: +5.67%2019-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: +2.02%2020-09-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.68) · SPY 63d: −10.77%2020-09-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: −8.94%2020-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −10.99%2020-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.95) · SPY 63d: −10.32%2020-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.52) · SPY 63d: −11.65%2020-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.44) · SPY 63d: −10.02%2020-11-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.30) · SPY 63d: −4.72%2020-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 63d: −8.08%2021-01-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −8.79%2021-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: +1.54%2021-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: +9.27%2021-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.08) · SPY 63d: +11.42%2021-12-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 63d: +3.93%2021-12-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.39) · SPY 63d: +4.64%2022-01-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.42) · SPY 63d: +4.67%2022-01-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.18) · SPY 63d: +4.10%2022-01-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 63d: +4.23%2022-01-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 63d: +0.80%2022-02-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: +8.07%2022-02-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: +6.19%2022-02-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: +7.34%2022-08-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: +7.08%2022-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.93) · SPY 63d: −5.42%2022-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 63d: −2.46%2022-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −1.23%2022-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.25) · SPY 63d: −0.63%2022-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.17) · SPY 63d: −0.65%2022-12-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: +1.46%2022-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.43) · SPY 63d: −4.14%2022-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 63d: −3.31%2022-12-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −7.18%2022-12-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 63d: −6.77%2023-01-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −5.79%2023-11-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.38) · SPY 63d: −11.34%2023-12-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −8.36%2024-01-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −6.02%2024-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 63d: −4.47%2024-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.68) · SPY 63d: −3.06%2024-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 63d: −6.41%2024-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 63d: −4.17%2024-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.42) · SPY 63d: −2.34%2024-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.06) · SPY 63d: −1.63%2024-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.79) · SPY 63d: −0.86%2024-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.19) · SPY 63d: +3.67%2025-01-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: +6.80%2025-08-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.53) · SPY 63d: −2.58%2025-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.72) · SPY 63d: −3.26%2025-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.89) · SPY 63d: +1.68%2025-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: +0.89%2026-01-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: +1.46%2026-01-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.01) · SPY 63d: +1.15%2000-10-242013-11-212026-01-09
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
Regime-tuned params · AutoResearch v13Analyst · preview
Regime matters
This indicator's strongest predictive edge sits in Low VIX (calm): tuned σ = 2, window = 240d, horizon = 126d, hit-rate deviation from chance = 50.0pp.
RegimeσWindowHorizonHit dev
● Low VIX (calm)2.00240d126d50.0pp
● Normal VIX2.7590d63d43.5pp
● High VIX (stress)2.50180d252d46.2pp

Hit-rate deviation = |hit% − 50%| at the row's tuned horizon. Big deviation = strong directional edge in that regime. Regimes split by daily VIX terciles (low / normal / high) over a 1-year rolling window. Analyst + Trader subscribers will be able to filter the home grid and the fire-history bar chart by regime.

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.