VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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PoorlyweatherSP-6371

Weather grade: Phoenix

Composite weather grade Phoenix.

Sectors:Regional MetrosWeather & Climate
the verdict —
At the 5d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 53% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.16%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6622. Bullish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-18
80.6
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 2.0%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 20%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 43%
last 90 observations · 2026-02-18 → 2026-05-18

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Weather grade: Phoenix
80.56▲ +26.46 (+48.91%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
103.776.7949.8622.94-3.99Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26
2025-09-09 → 2026-05-18 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading week. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

51%
+0.03%
1 d
↑53%
+0.16%
1 wk
↑53%
+0.39%
1 mo
51%
+0.40%
3 mo
↑52%
+0.20%
6 mo
↑52%
+0.85%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,622
+0.03%
51% same direction
+0.16%
53% same direction
+0.39%
53% same direction
+0.40%
51% same direction
+0.20%
52% same direction
+0.85%
52% same direction
WTI
crude oil
n=6,402
+0.06%
49% same direction
-0.03%
51% same direction
+0.45%
54% same direction
+3.1%
58% same direction
+3.4%
53% same direction
+0.20%
49% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreGold · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
162 fires · 47% positive · avg +0.42%
−15.0%−7.5%0%+7.5%+15.0%2000-08-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.62) · SPY 5d: +1.47%2000-10-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 5d: +4.65%2000-10-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 5d: +1.70%2000-10-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 5d: +4.52%2000-10-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 5d: +4.40%2000-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.26) · SPY 5d: −2.51%2001-01-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 5d: −2.20%2001-01-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 5d: −2.35%2001-02-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.01) · SPY 5d: −2.44%2001-03-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.29) · SPY 5d: +7.35%2001-04-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.48) · SPY 5d: −3.79%2001-07-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 5d: −2.68%2001-10-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 5d: −2.34%2001-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 5d: −0.54%2001-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 5d: +0.70%2001-11-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 5d: +1.37%2002-05-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 5d: +3.31%2002-05-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 5d: +3.62%2002-06-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 5d: +1.85%2002-06-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 5d: +1.88%2002-06-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 5d: +2.09%2002-06-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 5d: +2.26%2003-02-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.66) · SPY 5d: −3.44%2003-02-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 5d: +0.42%2003-02-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.48) · SPY 5d: +2.04%2003-02-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.79) · SPY 5d: −0.25%2003-08-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.78) · SPY 5d: −3.26%2003-09-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.65) · SPY 5d: −0.56%2003-11-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 5d: −0.76%2003-11-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 5d: −0.14%2003-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 5d: +1.51%2004-02-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.18) · SPY 5d: −1.37%2004-03-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 5d: +4.20%2004-03-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 5d: +3.26%2004-04-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.33) · SPY 5d: −0.16%2004-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.82) · SPY 5d: −2.94%2004-12-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.97) · SPY 5d: +2.76%2005-01-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.81) · SPY 5d: +1.08%2005-01-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.65) · SPY 5d: +0.55%2005-02-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.05) · SPY 5d: +0.32%2005-02-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 5d: −0.20%2005-02-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 5d: −2.22%2005-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 5d: +0.92%2005-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.60) · SPY 5d: −1.61%2005-10-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 5d: −0.34%2006-10-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.36) · SPY 5d: −1.20%2006-10-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 5d: +1.44%2006-10-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 5d: −0.99%2007-01-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 5d: +0.48%2007-01-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 5d: −1.02%2007-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.89) · SPY 5d: −1.51%2008-01-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 5d: −1.91%2008-02-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 5d: −1.62%2008-05-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.61) · SPY 5d: −0.92%2008-07-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 5d: +0.08%2008-07-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.10) · SPY 5d: −1.73%2008-09-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.44) · SPY 5d: +5.75%2008-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 5d: +6.23%2009-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.95) · SPY 5d: −0.93%2010-01-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.22) · SPY 5d: +2.80%2010-01-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.03) · SPY 5d: +1.67%2010-10-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.06) · SPY 5d: −0.84%2010-12-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 5d: −1.33%2011-03-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 5d: −0.96%2011-12-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.91) · SPY 5d: −0.71%2012-04-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 5d: +0.65%2012-08-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.01) · SPY 5d: +0.47%2012-08-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.87) · SPY 5d: +0.12%2012-09-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.95) · SPY 5d: −1.88%2013-03-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.97) · SPY 5d: −0.25%2013-09-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 5d: −1.60%2013-10-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 5d: +2.43%2013-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.62) · SPY 5d: +0.15%2013-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.43) · SPY 5d: −1.24%2014-07-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.73) · SPY 5d: −0.43%2014-08-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 5d: −2.09%2014-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.63) · SPY 5d: −0.98%2014-09-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.82) · SPY 5d: +0.80%2014-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 5d: +1.67%2015-01-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.08) · SPY 5d: −3.06%2015-03-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 5d: +1.71%2015-06-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.90) · SPY 5d: −0.11%2015-09-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.06) · SPY 5d: −0.23%2015-10-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 5d: +1.74%2016-01-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.85) · SPY 5d: +5.03%2016-01-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.68) · SPY 5d: +1.09%2016-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 5d: −0.13%2016-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 5d: +0.10%2016-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.11) · SPY 5d: −0.34%2016-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 5d: −0.10%2016-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.75) · SPY 5d: −0.34%2016-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.58) · SPY 5d: +0.82%2017-01-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 5d: −0.98%2017-02-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.77) · SPY 5d: −0.22%2017-07-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.88) · SPY 5d: +0.02%2018-02-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.08) · SPY 5d: −0.61%2018-05-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 5d: −2.27%2018-07-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 5d: −0.52%2018-07-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 5d: −0.23%2018-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.52) · SPY 5d: +1.34%2018-10-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.27) · SPY 5d: +1.43%2018-12-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 5d: −2.74%2019-02-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.74) · SPY 5d: −0.45%2019-02-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.61) · SPY 5d: −0.46%2019-09-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.57) · SPY 5d: −0.94%2019-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.97) · SPY 5d: +0.48%2019-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.71) · SPY 5d: −1.52%2019-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.55) · SPY 5d: −0.18%2019-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 5d: −1.13%2020-02-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.84) · SPY 5d: −0.92%2020-03-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.20) · SPY 5d: +12.52%2020-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.59) · SPY 5d: +3.06%2020-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.86) · SPY 5d: +15.04%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 5d: −2.83%2020-10-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.80) · SPY 5d: −2.71%2020-10-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 5d: −0.65%2020-10-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 5d: +5.17%2020-10-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 5d: +6.14%2020-11-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 5d: −0.77%2020-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 5d: −1.50%2021-01-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 5d: +2.12%2021-06-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 5d: +1.03%2021-06-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 5d: +0.32%2021-06-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 5d: −0.12%2021-06-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 5d: −0.74%2021-06-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 5d: −2.82%2021-07-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.05) · SPY 5d: +0.39%2021-07-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.91) · SPY 5d: +0.33%2021-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.48) · SPY 5d: +1.04%2021-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 5d: +1.18%2021-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 5d: −2.21%2021-09-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 5d: +1.71%2022-03-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.05) · SPY 5d: +2.28%2022-07-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.89) · SPY 5d: −4.39%2022-07-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.71) · SPY 5d: −3.34%2022-07-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.56) · SPY 5d: −1.99%2022-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 5d: +1.16%2022-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 5d: +3.99%2022-08-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 5d: +3.23%2022-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 5d: +1.82%2022-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 5d: +4.75%2023-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 5d: +0.74%2023-08-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.70) · SPY 5d: −0.78%2023-10-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 5d: +4.84%2023-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.39) · SPY 5d: +0.21%2024-01-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.85) · SPY 5d: −1.24%2024-02-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.90) · SPY 5d: −1.39%2024-02-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.81) · SPY 5d: −0.09%2024-03-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 5d: −2.23%2024-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 5d: +0.66%2024-10-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 5d: +1.90%2024-10-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 5d: +4.74%2024-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 5d: +4.75%2024-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 5d: −1.77%2025-03-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.95) · SPY 5d: +2.28%2025-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.94) · SPY 5d: −1.48%2025-08-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 5d: −0.59%2025-09-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 5d: −1.57%2025-09-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.53) · SPY 5d: +0.47%2025-09-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.42) · SPY 5d: −1.12%2025-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 5d: −2.26%2026-01-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 5d: −0.40%2000-08-292015-06-052026-01-08
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading week, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
Regime-tuned params · AutoResearch v13Analyst · preview
Regime matters
This indicator's strongest predictive edge sits in High VIX (stress): tuned σ = 2, window = 240d, horizon = 63d, hit-rate deviation from chance = 50.0pp.
RegimeσWindowHorizonHit dev
● Low VIX (calm)2.50180d126d28.6pp
● Normal VIX2.50240d252d45.7pp
● High VIX (stress)2.00240d63d50.0pp

Hit-rate deviation = |hit% − 50%| at the row's tuned horizon. Big deviation = strong directional edge in that regime. Regimes split by daily VIX terciles (low / normal / high) over a 1-year rolling window. Analyst + Trader subscribers will be able to filter the home grid and the fire-history bar chart by regime.

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.