Analyst · previewYou're seeing the public read on the Grant's 2024 cohort. Analyst unlocks per-speaker transcript receipts + the short-call drawdown timeline + explicit-vs-proxy classification on every pitch + alerts when a Grant's name fires. Trader adds custom methodology BYOB + multi-year aggregate vs SPY + the API for the full pitches dataset (incl. the unscoreable ones with editorial notes).Compare tiers →
Grant's Annual Fall Conference · 2024 · 1-year retrospective
3 pitches. 5 long, 2 short. Here's how they did.
Conference held 2024-10-01 (656 days ago). Each pitch enters a synthetic $100K book at conference open the next trading day; SPY-as-cash methodology; standard v5.4 conviction sizing. Numbers update daily as prices move.
Sum-of-books · 3 speakers × $100K
$418.7K vs SPY $400.4K
+6.1pp vs SPY
Each speaker their own $100K bucket. Cleanest read of pitch quality independent of one another.
Shared bucket · $0.30M across all pitches
$455.1K vs SPY $400.4K
+18.2pp vs SPY
Single shared bucket sized N × $100K. Conviction-tier sizing interacts across speakers — different number, same data.
Aggregate concentration: the headline numbers are essentially Stanley solo (+23.6pp on long COHR · long GLD · short TLT). Strip him out and the other 2 scoreable speakers average -2.7pp vs SPY. N=3 is too small to claim “Grant's speakers beat SPY” as a category; this year reads as “Stanley called 2024.”
Methodology note: the two aggregates diverge by 12.1pp. That's the engine's all-on-day-one dynamic: when 3 INITIATE events fire on a single trading day in a shared bucket, the conviction-tier sizing + subsequent shrink mechanics behave differently than 3 independent books. For conferences, sum-of-books is the more honest read — it isolates each manager's pitch quality without bucket-mechanics noise. Shared bucket shown for transparency.
Grant's 2024 Shared Bucket vs SPY — 412 trading days · 3 speakers · 5 long / 2 short
Host portfolio$455KSPY mirror$393K+$62K (+15.7%)
— News on Grant's 2024 pitched tickers —live
Live from Alpaca / Benzinga. Bundled across the 6 tickers pitched at this year's conference. Refreshes every 60 seconds.
No recent headlines for COHR, GLD, TLT, BIGZ, SPY, IWM in the last 7 days.
Per-speaker scorecard · ranked by outperformance vs SPY
speaker · firmpitchesbook valuereturnvs SPY
Stanley DruckenmillerDuquesne Family Office3$157.1K+57.1%+23.6pp
“Coherent Corp. named as his preferred way to play the AI infrastructure buildout. Equity outlook section.”
“Owns gold (not gold miners) as a hedge against the Fed's "reckless monetary gamble" and bipartisan fiscal recklessness. Regretfully trimmed the position prematurely.”
“I'm short US Treasury bonds at 15-20% of portfolio. Thesis: bipartisan fiscal recklessness, persistent above-target inflation, Fed making wrong policy moves into the election. "George [Soros] would be embarrassed of me" for not making the bet bigger.”
Robert RobottiRobotti & Company Advisors1$133.2K+33.2%-0.3pp
“Russell 2000 small-cap value opportunity. The index's "Zombie 1,000" money-losing constituents create a target-rich "ugly duckling" universe for active pickers. Specific picks paywalled at Hedge Fund Alpha; INGESTED AS IWM PROXY for his articulated thesis.”
Michael GreenSimplify Asset Management1$128.4K+28.4%-5.1pp
“"The Greatest Story Ever Sold" — passive investing's structural dominance distorts capital formation, fuels mega-cap concentration, creates a "passive bubble" with crash risk. Implied short on market-cap-weighted index ETFs. INGESTED AS SHORT SPY — thematic/structural pitch.”
Pitches we couldn't score
Real pitches from the conference. The engine couldn't mark them because yfinance returned no price series — foreign exchange, delisted, or merged out. We surface them here for transparency but they don't count toward the scorecard above.
Sean Fieler Equinox Partners
“Scancom (MTN Ghana) — Ghana's dominant cellphone operator with ~80% share in voice and mobile money. ~$1.8B equivalent market cap, deeply mispriced EM compounder. Part of "bullish on obscurity" frontier-EM thesis.”
Why: no price data — yfinance returned no series for this ticker (foreign exchange, delisted, or merged)
Boaz Weinstein Saba Capital Management
“Activist closed-end fund opportunity. Pitch covered both US BlackRock CEFs (BIGZ, ECAT, and 8 others targeted in his 2024 campaign) and UK investment trusts at historic NAV discounts. By late 2024 UK trusts ~25% of his $5.4B CEF bet. INGESTED AS BIGZ PROXY — basket pitch, not single ticker.”
Why: no price data — yfinance returned no series for this ticker (foreign exchange, delisted, or merged)
Grant's Interest Rate Observer's own conference recap is subscriber-only. Pitch data here is reconstructed from public secondary sources (ValueWalk, Hedge Fund Alpha, Seeking Alpha conference notes, and the speakers' own subsequent letters when posted). Direction labels and thesis summaries are our editorial extraction — flag corrections via the audit form.